Boko Haram’s campaign of violence has displaced about a million people, either out of the country or to towns and cities Nigeria that Boko Haram hasn’t attacked.
That flight has effectively disenfranchised people; only Nigerians in Nigeria may cast ballots, and many displaced people fled Boko Haram’s advance without their voter cards.
And if polls don’t open in swaths of three northeastern states hardest hit by the group, the election results will be wide open to a court challenge, Kari said. “If at the end of the day, elections do not take place in all three states, it means 5 million registered voters are not voting, and that can have an effect on the outcome of the election,” he said. “In any case, whether they vote or not, Nigeria’s presidential election always ends up in court.”
Voters have two main candidates to choose from, both of whom have histories in Nigerian politics.
Jonathan, a former vice president, took office in 2010 after President Umaru Yar’Adua died in office. Jonathan then won election in 2011. His campaign has centered on the narrative of continuity. Billboards put up by his supporters around Abuja advertise the trains, roads and schools that are on their way — if only the president can have more time.
Buhari, who has run for president and lost three times, has dismissed Jonathan’s claims of success. Buhari claims his experience in the military and as the nation’s ruler from 1983 to 1985 gives him the wherewithal both to run the government and defeat Boko Haram.
The group’s advances in the remote northeast stand in contrast to Nigeria’s economic ascension. The country overtook South Africa to become the largest economy in Africa after rebasing its GDP last year.